Saturday 28 January 2023

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Russia-Ukraine War: How tanks from Germany, US and UK could prolong the Ukraine war

This could be the week when the Russia-Ukraine war escalates to new levels. It is certainly a decisive moment, when a coalition of Western nations led by Germany, US and Britain confirming they are finally supplying modern-made main battle tanks to Kyiv.

Germany said it would send Leopard 2 tanks and the US said it would send M1 Abrams tanks. Both the UK and Poland have already made concrete pledges, and other western nations are expected to follow. Some military analysts have described the move as a potential "gamechanger or escalator" in the war, which has lasted more than a year now.

But is it really enough for Ukraine to win the war? 

Well, the Western tanks will make a difference in favour of Ukraine. 

In modern warfare, tanks have been a key element for offensive operations - to punch through enemy lines and retake territory. 

Used effectively, they provide mobile firepower, protection, shock and surprise. Concentrated in numbers, they can dislocate an enemy's defences. But they also need the support of artillery to first weaken those defences and then the support of infantry to hold retaken ground. 

History shows tanks alone don't win battles. The British first used hundreds of tanks at the battle of Cambrai in November 1917 - to end the deadlock of static trench warfare. Initially they made significant advances, but many tanks soon broke down and a German counter offensive turned British gains into losses. 

Tanks can also be used in defence. In 1940 they were used by the retreating British and French armies at Arras to stall the Nazi invasion, allowing the subsequent evacuation of British troops from Dunkirk.

But Ukraine has made clear that it wants weapons not just to stall any potential Russian spring offensive, but to retake its own territory - to go on the attack. 

If the Western pledges are firmed, Ukraine's armed forces could be boosted by more than 100 tanks. That would still fall well short of what Ukraine's overall military commander asked for.

Last October, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine needed an additional 300 tanks, 700 infantry fighting vehicles and 500 howitzers for his planned offensive this year. It might end up with just half of that.

The training required on the weapons will take time too - weeks if not months. And it's still not clear when all this equipment will arrive.

The US has indicated that its 31 M1 Abrams tanks might not be ready for months. Ukraine is also waiting for the West to respond to its repeated request for modern warplanes. An army attacking on the ground will need protection from the air.

Western officials had hoped that Ukraine may be able to mount an offensive as soon as this spring. They believe there is now a window of opportunity while Russia struggles to recruit and rebuild its battered forces, and to replenish its dwindling supplies of ammunition. 

The greatest challenge for Ukraine will be logistics - maintaining the flow of fuel, ammunition and spare parts. Ukraine is not just having to maintain its old Soviet-era arsenal, it is also having to worry about an increasingly complex inventory of Western supplied weapons. 


The UK is not just sending Ukraine 14 Challenger tanks, but also 30 artillery self-propelled guns and armoured vehicles to carry and protect troops.

That new package of military support also includes mine breaching and bridge-laying vehicles. In other words, the essential elements needed for any offensive operation.

The US is also providing Ukraine with more than 100 Bradley and Stryker armoured vehicles, and Germany 40 of its Marder infantry fighting vehicle - as well as tanks.

Tanks are the tip of the spear, designed to move quickly over open ground. The Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams are faster than most Russian-made tanks with speeds of more than 25mph (40km per hour) on rough terrain.

To take ground quickly, with any element of surprise, they would likely avoid urban areas where they would be more vulnerable to attack. Russia showed early on in this war, in its failed attempt to surround Kyiv, that a long column of armour on a road is an easy target.

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