LATEST POLLS: Dr William Ruto enjoys a 53% support, ahead of his main rival Raila Odinga who enjoys 37%, undecided voters are at 10%

In the last four months, many surveys have been carried out in Kenya by several pollsters. All these polls have placed Deputy President William Ruto ahead of the pack in the August 9, 2022, presidential election. 

Latest 2022 Election polls show head-to-head
match-up between Raila Odinga and Dr William Ruto (Courtesy: Ruzeki)

Some of these reputable research firms include Mizani Africa, TIFA Research firm, IPSOS, Cambridge Analytica, Bloomberg, local mainstream media, political parties, political analysts and seasonal publishers, etc. 

According to the opinion polls carried out by at least six pollsters,  Shadow News has compiled the data and presents the results as follows: 

• Deputy President Dr William Ruto enjoys 53.0 per cent support followed by the  Leader of Opposition Raila Odinga who enjoys 37.0 per cent. At least 10.0 per cent of the voters are undecided on who should be the next President of the Republic of Kenya after President Uhuru Kenyatta term ends. 

• Mt. Kenya region will play a cardinal role in deciding who becomes the 5th president in the August 9, 2022 election. The majority of the voters expect that a running mate for one of the front-runners will come from the vote-rich region. 

• At least 10.0 per cent of the voters believe the Party Leader of Amani National Congress party Musalia Mudavadi, and the Party Leader of the Wiper party Kalonzo Musyoka, will play a key role in deciding if the election will go for a runoff. As a requirement, the leading candidate should garner 50 per cent plus one vote to be declared the winner of a presidential election by the electoral body IEBC. 

• The biggest concerns for Kenyans are economic challenges such as high cost of living, unemployment, huge taxes, the Covid-19 pandemic corruption, and other issues such as insecurity, rule of law, human rights, etc. 

• The polls have shown that William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party is the most preferred political party in Kenya with almost 46.0 per cent, closely followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party with 29.0 per cent. Jubilee party comes third with 7.0 per cent, Amani National Congress (ANC) party with 5.0 per cent, the Wiper Democratic Movement party with 4.0 per cent and Kenya African National Union (KANU) party with 1.3 per cent. 

 

 

In conclusion, the results by the Shadow News panel has a margin error of 3.5%.

          

Shadow News invites queries about the data presented in this article and the methodology employed to compile it. Suggestions as to how future data processing on election polls and other issues are welcomed.

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