February 05, 2025
As challenges mount, public discontent continues to grow, making Ruto’s re-election bid highly uncertain. If President Ruto fails to address these issues within the next six months, Kenya could see a significant shift in leadership in the next election.
Here are some key reasons why President William Ruto is likely to be a one-term president:
1. Housing Levy Controversy
The mandatory housing levy has faced significant opposition from both the public and legal institutions. Critics argue that it burdens already struggling workers without providing clear benefits or accountability. The levy has been challenged in court, further eroding public trust.
President Ruto's flagship project, affordable housing, will miss the annual target of 200,000 units by a very wide margin. According to Alice Wahome, Cabinet Secretary for Lands and Public Works, less than 1000 units will be ready to be handed over to the workers. She cites funding delays and court cases as the main challenges.
2. Adani Scandal
The alleged involvement of Adani Group in questionable deals with Kenya has sparked concerns about foreign influence in national projects. Many see it as a case of economic exploitation, fueling discontent among citizens who believe the government is prioritizing corporate interests over local development.
3. Sha & Shif Fraud
The Social Health Insurance Fund (SHIF) has been criticized for being a repackaged NHIF with questionable management, leaving Kenyans skeptical about its effectiveness.
Some of the concerns include poor service delivery, poor communication, inadequate funding, unclear implementation frameworks, and the already-strained relationship between citizens and the healthcare system.
4. New University Funding Model
The shift from government-sponsored tuition to a controversial funding model has made higher education inaccessible for many students from low-income backgrounds. This has led to frustration among parents and youth, a key voting demographic.
This week, faced with a dilemma of nationwide university students' protests (GenZ protests) and compliance with a court order, President Ruto had no other choice but to revert to the old university funding model to send funds to students.
5. Increased NSSF Rates
The increment in National Social Security Fund (NSSF) contributions has been met with resistance, especially from low-income earners. Many see it as another form of government overreach, increasing financial strain without guaranteeing long-term benefits.
6. Unfulfilled Campaign Promises
Ruto’s administration has struggled to deliver on key pledges, including reducing the cost of living, creating jobs, and ensuring economic stability. The widening gap between promise and action has led to growing public frustration.
7. Culture of Lies & Misinformation
The government has been accused of frequently misleading the public on key issues, from economic progress to policy implementation. This has created a trust deficit, making it harder for citizens to believe in future commitments.
8. Abductions & Human Rights Concerns
Reports of enforced disappearances and unlawful detentions under Ruto’s administration have raised alarms among human rights groups. A government perceived as oppressive risks alienating voters who value democracy and freedom.
Many leaders and citizens have criticized the handling of the rising cases of abductions in Kenya, accusing President William Ruto's administration of inaction and insincerity in addressing the crisis.
9. Escalating Corruption
Despite promises to combat corruption, graft cases continue to dominate headlines, involving high-ranking officials. The lack of accountability reinforces the perception that Ruto’s government is no different from past regimes.
10. Unemployment Crisis
Job creation remains one of the biggest failures of the administration. Youth unemployment is at alarming levels, with many disillusioned by the government’s inability to provide sustainable economic opportunities.
11. Fallout with DP Gachagua
In the 2022 election, 3.5 million of President William Ruto’s 7.1 million votes came from Mt Kenya, a regional landslide largely attributed to his decision to pick Rigathi Gachagua as his running mate. Since the impeachment of DP Gachagua, Mt Kenya has been a hostile ground to President Ruto and his political allies. From the comfort of his Wamunyoro home, Gachagua is giving President Ruto sleepless nights ahead of 2027.
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With these challenges mounting, public discontent continues to grow, making Ruto’s re-election bid highly uncertain. If the administration fails to address these issues, Kenya may witness a shift in leadership come the next election.
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