Why Raila Lost the AUC election: A Geopolitical and Domestic Analysis

By Ruzeki, Shadoww News 
February 15, 2025

Raila’s defeat today wasn’t just about Kenyan politics—it was shaped by Africa’s evolving geopolitical landscape, international power struggles, and internal realignments within the African Union. 

Here's a geopolitical and domestic analysis of why Raila Lost 

Raila Odinga’s recent political setback in Addis Ababa wasn’t just about local dynamics—it was influenced by regional geopolitics, international alignments, and Kenya’s internal power struggles. While many attribute his loss to domestic political maneuvers, broader global and continental forces played a critical role. 

1. Ruto’s Influence and Kenya’s Pro-US Stance 

At the center of this outcome is President William Ruto, whose government has leaned heavily towards the United States and Western allies. This shift directly clashes with China’s growing influence in Africa, forcing geopolitical realignments. Raila, seen as a more neutral figure with historical ties to both Western and Eastern blocs, may have faced indirect opposition from actors aligned with China’s interests. 

2. China’s Deep Ties with Djibouti 

Djibouti, home to China’s only overseas military base, has become a strategic outpost for Beijing’s ambitions in Africa. The country’s leadership holds significant sway within the African Union Commission (AUC) and broader continental policymaking. China operatives were busy lobbying for Djibouti's candidate Mahmoud Ali Yousouff. Given Kenya’s pro-Western alignment under Ruto, China may have found a Raila-led Kenya less geopolitically favorable, influencing power plays within African institutions. 

3. The China-US Power Games in Africa 

Africa has become a battleground for US-China rivalry, with economic, military, and political stakes at play. Ruto has aggressively courted the West, securing major deals, while countries like Ethiopia, Djibouti, and South Africa remain deeply tied to China. This broader alignment may have influenced diplomatic maneuvers within the AU, subtly impacting Raila’s chances. 

4. Conflicts in DRC and Sudan Shaping AU Priorities 

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) conflict, coupled with Sudan’s ongoing crisis, has redirected AU’s focus towards regional security concerns. With Kenya actively involved in peace efforts—often in line with US and Western interests—Raila’s potential leadership could have disrupted existing security partnerships. The AU, influenced by multiple geopolitical actors, may have favored stability over change. 

5. Recent Political Developments in Kenya 

Domestically, Kenya has been rocked by high-profile abductions, state repression, and corruption scandals. Ruto has been accused of consolidating power through questionable means, including allegations of being among the world’s most corrupt leaders. This has tarnished Kenya’s image but also strengthened Ruto’s grip on institutions, making it difficult for Raila to mount a successful challenge. 

6. The Francophone vs. Anglophone Divide 

A longstanding but often overlooked factor in AU politics is the Francophone vs. Anglophone rivalry. France, through its traditional spheres of influence in West and Central Africa, continues to wield significant control. Kenya, an Anglophone powerhouse, often faces resistance from Francophone-aligned blocs in AU decision-making. Raila, despite his pan-African credentials, may have been a victim of these deep-seated power struggles. 

A Perfect Storm of Continental and Global Factors 

Raila’s defeat wasn’t just about Kenyan politics—it was shaped by Africa’s evolving geopolitical landscape, international power struggles, and internal realignments within the AU. As Kenya cements its pro-Western stance, China’s silent maneuvers and Africa’s internal power plays will continue shaping the region’s political future.