Summary:
1. We predict most Kenyans will be led by Kenya Kwanza governors.
2. Kenya Kwanza and UDA Party specifically, will have the majority both in the National Assembly and the Senate.
3. Kenya Kwanza will have majority of MCAs in most of the County Assemblies.
4. Kenya Kwanza's Dr William Ruto will WIN the State House race.
Kenyans feel RESPONSIBLE and PERSONALLY call to cast their VOTE on August 9, 2022. Majority of these potential voters are likelier to vote YELLOW than BLUE.
There are 47 counties in Kenya. Shadow News rated every gubernatorial race in play in August 9, 2022. This is who we think will win.
001: Mombasa- Abdulswamad Nassir
002: Kwale- Fatuma Achani
003: Kilifi- Aisha Jumwa
004: Tana River- Hussein Dado
005: Lamu- Issa Timamy
006: Taita Taveta- John Mrutu
007: Garissa- Dekow Mohammed
008: Wajir- Ahmed Abdullahi
009: Mandera- Ali Noor Aden
010: Marsabit- Kello Harasame
011: Isiolo- Godana Doyo
012: Meru- Mithika Linturi
013: Tharaka Nithi- Muthomi Njuki
014: Embu- Cecily Mbarire
015: Kitui- Julius Malombe
016: Machakos- Johnson Muthama
017: Makueni- Mutula Kilonzo Jr
018: Nyandarua- Moses Badilisha
019: Nyeri- Mutahi Kahiga
020: Kirinyaga- Anne Waiguru
021: Murang’a- Irungu Kangata
022: Kiambu- Kimani Wamatangi
023: Turkana- John Lodepe
024: West Pokot- Simon Kachapin
025: Samburu- Leltit Lati
026: Trans-Nzoia- Chris Wamalwa
027: Uasin Gishu- Jonathan Bii
028: Elgeyo Marakwet- Wesley Korir
029: Nandi- Stephen Sang
030: Baringo- Moses Cheboi
031: Laikipia- Joshua Irungu
032: Nakuru- Susan Kihika
033: Narok- Patrick Olentutu
034: Kajiado- Katoo Ole Mitito
035: Kericho- Erick Mutai
036: Bomet- Isaac Rutto
037: Kakamega- Cleophas Malala
038: Vihiga- Moses Akaranga
039: Bungoma- Kenneth Lusaka
040: Busia- Paul Otuoma
041: Siaya- James Orengo
042: Kisumu- Anyang Nyong'o
043: Homa Bay- Evans Kidero
044: Migori- Ochilo Ayacko
045: Kisii- Ezekiel Machogu
046: Nyamira- Walter Nyambati
047: Nairobi- Johnson Sakaja
NOTE/:
Azimio(Blue): 10 Governors
Kenya Kwanza(Yellow): 36 Governors
Independent: 1 Governor
Presidential Race:
Raila Odinga= 35%-40%
William Ruto= 55%-60%
The road to August 9th will have many twists and turns, but Shadow News’s Election desk will be there to debrief you what's happening.
We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible.
Ruzeki, our chief editor, has settled on core principles that guide every prediction he makes.
We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings.
We compile recent polling statistics from several pollsters (where appropriate) but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality and history.
We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. You deserve to hear our thinking.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS OR SUPPORT:
Contact Ruzeki on Twitter. He's happy to chat about politics. Feel free to donate via PayPal or Mpesa: 0792672031
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