Niger Crisis: Deadline expires for the coup leaders to cede power, will ECOWAS/France/US military intervention come next?

By Ruzeki, Shadow News. 

Key takeaways 

• The ECOWAS deadline has expired. 

• Niger closes its airspace. 

• Algeria repeatedly opposed any military intervention. 

• Chad confirmed it would not intervene militarily. 

• ECOWAS is reportedly drafting military intervention plans. 

• France issue 'code red' travel advisories.  

• France, United States, Spain and United Kingdom evacuate its nationals. 

• Nigeria Senate rejects Bola Tinubu's military resolution. 

• On Sunday, more than 30, 000 Nigeriens joined a pro-junta demonstration in Niamey. 

Here's what to know about the Niger Crisis 

On 26 July 2023, a coup d'état occurred in Niger, in which the country's presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum, and presidential guard commander general Abdourahamane Tchiani proclaimed himself the leader of a new military junta. 

In response, on 30 July 2023, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) gave Niger's coup leaders a one-week deadline to hand power back to Bazoum or face international sanctions and use of force. 

The deadline expired on 6 August 2023. ECOWAS is yet to give directions on its next move. Previously, ECOWAS has intervened in The Gambia to restore democracy following the 2016–2017 constitutional crisis. 

The political situation in ECOWAS bloc following the coup in Niger is deadlock. Some member states support the Nigerien coup; while others like Nigeria opposes the coup. 

On 1 August, the French foreign ministry announced that it was preparing to evacuate its citizens and that of other European nationals starting that day, citing the unrest in Niamey, the attack on its embassy, and the closure of Niger's airspace. 

The Spanish Defence Ministry said it would evacuate more than 70 Spaniards in Niger by air. 

On 2 August, the first evacuation flights were carried out. An Italian military plane carried 87 evacuees from Niger and landed in Rome, while 262 evacuees arrived on a French evacuation flight in Paris. In total, 1,079 people were evacuated by France. 

The US State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency government personnel and eligible family members from its Embassy, which would remain open for "limited, emergency services to U.S. citizens." The United Kingdom also ordered a reduction of staff at its embassy. 

In response to the evacuations, the M62 movement called for a peaceful blockade of Niamey Airport until foreign military forces left the country. 

On August 6, the one-week deadline for the military junta to hand power back to Bazoum or face military intervention expired without ECOWAS carrying out its threat. 

In Niamey, around 30,000 people joined a pro-junta demonstration at Stade Général Seyni Kountché on Sunday, which was also attended by junta member General Mohamed Toumba.  

Niger has called on citizens to get ready to defend the homeland. 

Algerian president Abdelmadjid Tebboune expressed his opposition to any military intervention, stating "A military intervention could ignite the whole Sahel region and Algeria will not use force with its neighbours". 

The junta gave France 30 days to vacate Niger, in accordance with the 1977 Agreement of Technical Military Cooperation. It also closed the country's airspace again, citing the threat of military intervention. 

On August 5, reports emerged that the junta, through General Salifou Mody, had formally asked for assistance from the Russian Wagner Group during his visit to Mali. On the same day, sources report that Wagner Group instructors and security specialists have arrived in the capital of Niger, Niamey, from Mali. 

After meeting with Bazoum's Prime Minister Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou in Paris, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna announced the country's support for an ECOWAS intervention in Niger, without specifying whether it would provide military support. 

The Nigerian Senate rejected President Tinubu's request to authorize military intervention in Niger and instead urged him to resolve the crisis by more diplomatic means. 

However, the Constitution of Nigeria still permits the President to deploy troops abroad without Senate approval if the President believes the national security is under "imminent threat or danger". 

Chad announced that it would not participate in an ECOWAS-led military intervention against the Junta. 

The United States, France and other European countries have been involved in Niger because of the Islamist insurgency in the Sahel, which in turn triggered the Jihadist insurgency in Niger led by Al-Qaeda, Islamic State and Boko Haram. 

The USA, France, and Turkey have had bases in the country. In 2022 it became a hub of French anti-terror operations after its departure from Mali and Burkina Faso following a series of military coups and anti-French sentiment which paved the way for Russian influence and the entry of its private mercenary firm Wagner Group in the region. 

We shall update this Niger Crisis as soon as new information is available. 

Shadow News is committed to publishing  facts. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. 

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Nigeria election results 2023: Bola Tinubu declared the winner, amid protests from Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi.

By Ruzeki in Nairobi & Rita in Lagos 

Shadow News 

Hon. Bola Tinubu from Nigeria's ruling party has taken a strong lead as results are declared from Saturday's presidential election, amid opposition protests. 

Nigeria presidential results 2023

To win in the first round, a candidate must have the largest number of votes nationwide and at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory (Abuja). 

Last updated: 01/03/2023, 12:17 PM (EAT) 

INEC Final results

Candidates

Votes

---

36.61%

Bola Tinubu

8,794,726

---

29.07%

Atiku Abubakar

6,984,520

---

25.4%

Peter Obi

6,101,533

---

6.23%

Rabiu Kwankwaso

1,496,687

Hon. Tinubu, who is a 70 years old wealthy businessman and a former governor of Lagos state, has atleast 36 percent of the vote. 

The former Vice-President Hon. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic party has 29 percent, while Labour Party candidate Hon. Peter Obi has 25 percent. 

The parties of both Hon. Abubakar and Hon. Obi have called for the cancellation of this election and a fresh election to be conducted. 

The opposition parties alleged that the inability of the electoral commission INEC to upload results to its website showed that the results had been altered in favour of the ruling party.  

Many voters reported problems with uploading results through the new electronic voting system, which was intended to speed up the election process. 

There were also widespread delays across Nigeria, with many polling stations opening several hours late, and the election kits malfunctioning. Voting was held overnight, and on Sunday in some polling stations. 

The electoral commission INEC advises the opposition parties to take their complaints to court and is pressing ahead with the release of results. 

The European Union observers said the electoral body's poor planning and communication had undermined the trust and transparency in the whole process. 

There are groups of angry protesters denouncing the electoral commission INEC, outside the national collation centre in Nigeria's capital, Abuja. 

The NEXT PRESIDENT of NIGERIA: Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi?

By Ruzeki, Shadow News, Nairobi. 

Tension is very high across the country as Nigerians await the results of the presidential and the national assembly elections, which was held on Saturday February 25, 2023. 

The Chairperson of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, has assured the Nigerian voters that the process of tallying, collation and announcement of the results would be transparent. 

INEC has explained that the challenges it is encountering, such as the transmission of results was not due to sabotage of its system as alleged on social media. 

According to the provisional results from the INEC website, three presidential candidates are seen to be pulling ahead of the other 15 candidates. These frontrunners are Hon. Bola Tinubu of All Progressives Congress (APC), Hon. Atiku Abubakar of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Hon. Peter Obi of the Labour Party. 

Constitutionally, INEC has 14 days to officially announce the presidential results, but the online tally should be made available in the next few days. 

Shadow News cannot tally or report any unofficial results. We encourage our readers to visit the official INEC website and get provisional results as they come in.  

Here's the INEC official link: NIGERIA PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS  

We urge our readers in Nigeria to stay calm, avoid disinformation and keep peace as they wait to know who's their NEXT PRESIDENT. 

Nigeria Decides 2023: Millions of Nigerians vote in a historic election

 By Ruzeki, Shadow News, Nairobi 

Very long queues have been witnessed at polling stations across Nigeria as millions participate in the most competitive presidential poll since the end of a military rule. 

Highlights 

● Election officials and voting material arrived late at some polling stations. 

● Voting machines also malfunctioned at some polling stations, with voters told to return later. 

● Parliamentary elections are also taking place in today's poll. 

● Excited crowds looked on as the their preferred candidates voted. 

● There are a total of 18 presidential candidates in today's poll. 

● The parliamentary election was postponed in the south-eastern Enugu East constituency, after the killing of a senatorial candidate on Wednesday by suspected gunmen from the separatist group. 

● Today's election has seen a huge interest from first-time voters and young people. 

● The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has promised a free and fair elections. 

● The INEC will conduct national elections using the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), a facial and fingerprints technology for the first time. The system will improve transparency by making it harder for politicians to rig the process. 

● Final results are expected to be announced within 48hours after voting ends. The BVAS allows for the uploading of vote results directly to the INEC website from the polling stations.

● A candidate needs to have the most votes and 25% of ballots cast in two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states to be declared the winner. If no candidate achieves this, there will be a run-off within 21 days between the first two candidates. 

Since 1999, Nigeria which is the most populous country in Africa has been dominated by two parties; the ruling APC (All Progressives Congress) and the PDP (Peoples Democratic Party). 

But in this election, there is a very strong challenge from a third-party candidate - the Labour Party's Peter Obi, who is backed by many young people. 

President Muhammadu Buhari is retiring after two four-year terms. His APC party is represented by the former governor of Lagos Hon. Bola Tinubu, while the former Vice-President Hon. Atiku Abubakar is the flag bearer for the main opposition PDP. 

We shall bring you a FULL COVERAGE of the election night once the results start streaming live on the INEC official website. 

WHAT'S AT STAKE IN THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS scheduled for February 25, 2023.

 NIGERIA (By Ruzeki, Shadow News) 

Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, largest economy, and top oil producer. It will hold a presidential election on Saturday February 25. 

The incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, is finishing his second four-year term, and thus he's ineligible to run for re-election. 

The reasons why the stakes are high  in this election: 

• The Africa’s largest economy, is still recovering from a COVID-19 shock that triggered the country’s second recession in just five years. 
• Inflation reached 21.5% at the end of 2022. 
• The unemployment rate stands at 33% for all adults and 42.5% for young adults. 
• According to the World Bank, atleast 40% of the country’s 221 million people live below the poverty line and “many Nigerians, especially in the country’s north lack education and access to basic infrastructure; such as electricity, safe drinking water, and improved sanitation. 
• The value of the naira, Nigeria’s currency, plunged last year as oil theft, a chronic problem in Nigeria’s south, took a bite out of the country’s oil exports. 
• A plan to replace old banknotes with new ones has gone completely off the rails a few weeks to the polls, leading to cash shortages, protests, vandalism of bank facilities, and chaos at ATMs. 
• Acute fuel shortages for consumers have also set voters’ teeth on edge. 
• Corruption remains endemic. 
• The now 13-year insurgency of the terrorist group Boko Haram continues to wreak havoc in the country’s northeast. 
• There are secessionists in the southeast, led by the Indigenous People of Biafra, who are accused of most of the attacks aimed at electoral workers and facilities over the past years. 
• Well-armed criminal gangs commit crimes in several regions.  

According to the Nigeria's constitution, the candidate with the most votes who also earns at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states will be declared the winner. 

If no candidate attains this threshold, the top two candidates will then face off in a second round of voting within 21 days. 

There are 18 candidates in this election,but just three have a real chance to win. 

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the former Lagos governor, represents the governing All Progressives Congress (APC). Mr. Tinubu is widely considered the favorite to win, mainly because he’s an experienced politician with 21 ruling party governors who have been making his case locally and enough campaign funding. 

But Mr. Tinubu also faces big challenges. He has to find ways to distance himself from the unpopular incumbent Buhari without alienating the president’s supporters. 

The 70-year-old Tinubu has also battled rumors that he suffers from a neuro-generative disorder, which can slur his speech, though he denies this. 

Atiku Abubakar, known widely simply as Atiku, will represent the main opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). 

Mr. Atiku served as vice president under President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007, but he has failed in five previous attempts to win the top seat. 

The now 76-year-old candidate has offered himself as a unifier in a country polarized by regional, religious, and ethnic divisions. 

Atiku’s biggest advantage appears to be that he shares a cultural and religious identity with voters in Nigeria’s Muslim northeastern and northwestern state, regions which account for almost 40% of Nigeria’s 96 million registered voters. 

Peter Obi is a wealthy businessman who will represent the little-known Labour Party, which remains outside Nigeria’s traditional political elite. 

The mainstream frontrunners, Tinubu and Atiku, don’t offer clearly defined ideological agendas, allowing Mr. Obi to argue that the choice between them is simply between old political tribes over who controls the lion’s share of the country’s wealth. 

Obi’s biggest challenge will be to persuade enough voters that the outsider really can win. In fact, Obi served as Atiku’s vice-presidential running-mate in 2019, and was a member of Atiku’s PDP until last year. 

The only major Christian candidate, Obi enjoy politically potent support from churches across the country. 

As in other countries, the role of outsider is a double-edged sword. It increases Obi’s appeal among young voters and all those hungry for “throw the bums out”-style change. 

But it also leaves his campaign without familiar faces to act as surrogates, and some voters may fear that a party with few seats in the legislature and few established ties with the country’s powerful state governors won’t be able to accomplish much. 

The race remains competitive and highly unpredictable. It’s easy to be cynical when the national economic and security problems detailed above headlines the last several elections. 

However three-quarters of those registered to vote in this election are between the ages of 18-49. That should worry the septuagenarian frontrunners and their establishment political parties. Yet, Obi and other outsiders will have to prove they can inspire these younger voters to the polls. 

The turnout at the last election (2019) was just 35%. It should take about five days to count the votes and report the results. 

Shadow News will continue to update you on this high stake election. Our live coverage of the Nigeria's presidential election will start on election day.